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Tullioz

Tropical Storm may affect much of The Visayas by Monday 12Feb18

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Tullioz

I have been watching this system on the models over the past several days and it looks like at the very least a strong tropical storm will be approaching The Visayas by Monday. It may even become a typhoon by that time. The track could shift a little north or south by then, but these are the latest positions based on the GFS model. Just something to keep an eye on for now.

storm1.thumb.jpg.af325de014a231296bb21619cc01ba52.jpg

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https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=94W&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018020900&fh=90

 

Edited by Tullioz
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bounder

Let's just hope it only brings rain and a little wind as it looks really close to my back door.  

 

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Woolf

Looks like a lot of rain monday night tuesday 

https://www.windy.com/?rain,11.588,138.274,5

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captainpete

Great i have already booked my ticket to fly in on Monday

 

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Headshot

The charts are now showing it hitting Cebu about midday on Tuesday. It doesn't appear that it will turn into a typhoon until it clears Palawan and is out in the Spratley Islands. You can pretty much bet that schools on Cebu will be shut down on Monday or Tuesday this next week due to Signal 1 being declared.

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JamesMusslewhite

Good, with luck we will be able to fill all the rain barrels.

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colemanlee

Looks like this time Tacloban will just get just rain, no biggie, Looks like anything just South of us is in for it

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Dafey

Great story SP...you should start a thread about storms of the past. I'm sure it would be popular.

However, let's stick to the current approaching system for this thread's topic.

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jtmwatchbiz
3 hours ago, captainpete said:

Great i have already booked my ticket to fly in on Monday

 

don't worry pete these storms don't usually last very long and after a couple days we will have sunshine. 

Edited by jtmwatchbiz

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captainpete
46 minutes ago, jtmwatchbiz said:

don't worry pete these storms don't usually last very long and after a couple days we will have sunshine. 

Hoping your right Fred don't want to get on the boat to Bohol in big seas 

 

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Headshot
1 minute ago, captainpete said:

Hoping your right Fred don't want to get on the boat to Bohol in big seas

You won't. Anymore, they shut down the ferries for even the littlest storms.

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Tullioz

The latest run of the GFS has the storm quite a bit further south than before. It now shows a fairly strong tropical storm making landfall south of Surigao City and moving into the southern part of the island of Cebu.  

Heavy rainfall will be the biggest threat. The latest run shows a large area of 200mm+ (8+ inches) falling in a six to eight hour period which would lead to flooding and landslides wherever those amounts might fall. 

The track will change from run to run and in the end it may not be Cebu that gets a lot of rain, but somewhere in The Visayas or northern Mindanao will. 

storm3.thumb.jpg.e24e88c7f7501d74489b732e2bf49580.jpg

5a7ded1738cef_storm4.jpg.954746e0f8b78fdbe64c50df077a0a5a.jpg

 

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Goetz1965

No aircon needed for 2-3 days again - hooray for the savings !!!

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cogon88

If your lucky the storm may take down the power lines so you have no power for a few weeks  giving you more savings 

Edited by cogon88
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Woolf

 

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/cebu/local-news/2018/02/11/storm-heading-southern-cebu-588359

 

Quote

Storm heading for Southern Cebu

Sunday, February 11, 2018

A TROPICAL storm is likely to hit Southern Cebu either tomorrow night or at dawn Tuesday. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) could not yet say which part of Southern Cebu the storm would hit, as it was still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as of Saturday. Pagasa Mactan Chief Al Quiblat said that given the weather system’s track so far, it could hit Northern Mindanao or anywhere from Talisay City to Santander in Cebu’s southern leg. Quiblat said he expects the tropical depression will strengthen into a tropical storm before landfall, which means its winds could be 62 to 88 kilometers per hour (kph). At that strength, it could bring up to 40 millimeters of rainfall, which is equivalent to 200,000 barrels or drums that can already cause floods. He said Pagasa will confirm more details once the weather disturbance enters PAR. A tropical depression generates winds that are 62 kph or weaker. A tropical storm packs winds that are 63 to 88 kph. A severe tropical storm carries winds that are from 89 to 118 kph. A typhoon has winds from 119 to 220 kph, and systems that bring with it winds that are 220 kph or stronger are super typhoons. “At present, we will continue to use international data until the storm will enter PAR,” Quiblat said. (EOB) Published in the SunStar Cebu newspaper on February 11, 2018.


 

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