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Biotech / AI / robotics?

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rfm010
30 minutes ago, Oz Jon said:

Well rfm - there was some good stuff in your last post - i liked it.

thank you much.

However I thought that you were a bit unfair comparing those 2 specialised EFTs with the S&P Index! The S&P500 is a pretty staid, bloated with banks and the like, conservative index.

not my chart.  i just picked it for the xbi, ibb comparison.  but you are right, nasdaq would be the more fair comparison for an overall market.   really depends on what alternative investment one would make.

The NASDAQ 100 is probably a better, more contemporary indicator of the US market. It would have yielded about 206% (up about 3x) in that same period.

Certainly those 2 specialised ETFs did a bit better, but at considerably higher risk.

Is that few % extra yield worth the extra risk? - that's the name of this game!

i'm old and desperate so yes the risk is worth it.  that said, i'm in individual biotech stocks so my risk may be even higher.  but so far, so good.

[APPLE, AMAZON, GOOGLE, FACEBOOK, etc aren't going to go broke, anytime soon!]

yes they are, but let's keep that our little secret and short the bejeebers out of them.

Cheers

back at ya.

i'm writing in red inside your post because i don't know how to split your post up to write outside of it.

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Cgu
1 hour ago, Oz Jon said:

It would have yielded about 206% (up about 3x) in that same period.

I was quite surprised seeing these yields, as I use them all the time as benchmark when I backtest (as with backtest you use prices). Seeing the chart I assume it was a range from 2010 to 2016, then the SPY would have yielded around  EDIT (Typo: not 190)  90% while QQQ around (Typo not 240) 140% in the same time period (based on the same amount of investment when buying on 1/1/2010 and selling 6/2016).

 

Edited by Cgu
Typo

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Oz Jon
4 hours ago, Cgu said:

I was quite surprised seeing these yields, as I use them all the time as benchmark when I backtest (as with backtest you use prices). Seeing the chart I assume it was a range from 2010 to 2016, then the SPY would have yielded around  EDIT (Typo: not 190)  90% while QQQ around (Typo not 240) 140% in the same time period (based on the same amount of investment when buying on 1/1/2010 and selling 6/2016).

 

Well Cgu, you got me worried that I had published wrong information, so I've just checked QQQ from Jan 2010 to today.

I got my data from yahoo/finance#. According to their "max" timescale chart, QQQ was about $45 in jan 2010 and is about $164 today. So, that's 164/45=3.64 times, or a 264% yield.

The result varies a bit depending on the exact dates you pick, but my original claim is close enough to being correct for the case I was making (maybe even a bit conservative).

I am imperfect, but hopefully, not too imperfect! - Lol!

# yahoo has been "improving" their website for the past few months and it's getting less and less easy to use, useful and reliable every week, so I checked that Jan 2010 price on the NASDAQ website .... $45 is about right!

 

Edited by Oz Jon

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Oz Jon

Oops!

Oh dear Cgu (and rfm), I've just realised that the end date on the above chart was about June 2016, not  Jan 2018 as I had wrongly assumed!

You noted the correct end-date and those are the numbers you correctly published above.

My data error doesn't affect the thrust of my argument, but I'm disappointed to have published wrong figures to back it.

I am more imperfect than I thought!

I blame the impetuosity of youth! - Lol!

 

 

 

Edited by Oz Jon
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Cgu
37 minutes ago, Oz Jon said:

I got my data from yahoo/finance#. According to their "max" timescale chart, QQQ was about $45 in jan 2010 and is about $164 today. So, that's 164/45=3.64 times, or a 264% yield.

Yes, these are the figures I got as well from my backtest for the benchmark - so no worries:D - I had a typo as well. NASDAQ always performs better in bull markets (and does so as well in bear - just in the opposite direction, but no matter which way as long as you go with the flow)

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rep1
11 hours ago, Oz Jon said:

Well, I find just the opposite!

ETrade charges me US$6.95 per trade and Schwab charges me US$4.95 per trade.

And I do FX conversions (AU$ - US$ or reverse) through OFX. Costs about 1% (banks charge 3-4%).

You mentioned ETFs.

I tried IB. looks working but they stat extra fee for not trading certain counts every month - can't accept that since I only want very long term investments. Transaction fee is of no matter to me.

will try E*TRADE

QQQ growth is very slow compared compared to individual stocks I bought, and if US market is down it'd go down too, unlike biotech or google? I'm looking for some AI ETF, or AI + robotics. BOTZ is the only one I found so far but with problems I stated above - I think some idiots are senselessly fueling the stock price of automation industry starting two years ago, at least for half of the top holdings (e.g. Yaskawa Electric Corp) in BOTZ.

EDIT: ETrade doesn't accept non-US application anymore.

Edited by rep1

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rep1

Hmmm I was wrong about IB. Minimum activity fee is only $10/mon!

So it appears my problem is due the bank I'm using. They don't even have FBIOX!

will reopen IB and search for better funds...

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rfm010
12 hours ago, rep1 said:

and if US market is down it'd go down too, unlike biotech or google?  

You need to re-think that statement right quick.  If u.s.markets go down biotech as a sector will be quite happy to go right along with them.  Just as they did this week.

since you say you are in long term i think it would be safe to say markets in general will go up.  I expect biotech will overperform because the science is getting better and the demand for the product is growing.  But do expect bumps in the road.  Big bumps.

or just put all your money into seattle genetics, SGEN, and enjoy a smooth ride to riches.  A good company on its own, they just bought a company i was holding for a very good price.  The bought company, CASC, has a couple of gangbuster drugs in development and SGEN will do well by owning them.  I expect to be taking a position this week, depending on how the market settles.

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rep1
4 minutes ago, rfm010 said:

You need to re-think that statement right quick.  If u.s.markets go down biotech as a sector will be quite happy to go right along with them.  Just as they did this week.

since you say you are in long term i think it would be safe to say markets in general will go up.  I expect biotech will overperform because the science is getting better and the demand for the product is growing.  But do expect bumps in the road.  Big bumps.

or just put all your money into seattle genetics, SGEN, and enjoy a smooth ride to riches.  A good company on its own, they just bought a company i was holding for a very good price.  The bought company, CASC, has a couple of gangbuster drugs in development and SGEN will do well by owning them.  I expect to be taking a position this week, depending on how the market settles.

Eh? Biotech ETFs seem unaffected by 2007-2008 crash.

SGEN is held in XBI 1% and FBT 3%. So I suppose XBI is worth of bigger investment. :) 

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rfm010
12 hours ago, rep1 said:

Eh? Biotech ETFs seem unaffected by 2007-2008 crash.

SGEN is held in XBI 1% and FBT 3%. So I suppose XBI is worth of bigger investment. :) 

Looking at morningstar i see xbi down about 25% from the end of july 2008 to the end of november.  By april 2009 that was more like 33%.  Also look at the chart i posted.  The last half of 2015 to early 2016 was not a happy ride.  Fbiox has yet to return to mid 2015 levels, xbi just recently did i think, not sure about ibb.  The world isnt all that easy or everybody would be on board.

of course if you are looking for big bucks ADVM could be the way to go.  I got in a bit late so i'm only up 50% but not bad for 2 weeks, especially given the market downturn last week and the study that came out questioning the safety of adeno-associated virus vector gene therapy (screw liver toxicity!  Someone is bound to find a way to grow new livers anyway).  Three late stage drugs on tap, any one of them approved and there will be 10x plus growth potential.  Some early trial stuff with rolling data releases to start soon.  Good numbers will give another quick 50% easy.  But sure, go ahead and ignore me.  You're not really interested in that future fabulous  lifestyle are you?

past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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rep1
21 hours ago, rfm010 said:

Looking at morningstar i see xbi down about 25% from the end of july 2008 to the end of november.  By april 2009 that was more like 33%.  Also look at the chart i posted.  The last half of 2015 to early 2016 was not a happy ride.  Fbiox has yet to return to mid 2015 levels, xbi just recently did i think, not sure about ibb.  The world isnt all that easy or everybody would be on board.

of course if you are looking for big bucks ADVM could be the way to go.  I got in a bit late so i'm only up 50% but not bad for 2 weeks, especially given the market downturn last week and the study that came out questioning the safety of adeno-associated virus vector gene therapy (screw liver toxicity!  Someone is bound to find a way to grow new livers anyway).  Three late stage drugs on tap, any one of them approved and there will be 10x plus growth potential.  Some early trial stuff with rolling data releases to start soon.  Good numbers will give another quick 50% easy.  But sure, go ahead and ignore me.  You're not really interested in that future fabulous  lifestyle are you?

past performance is no guarantee of future results.

XBI looked okay? It took one and half year to recover. The up is not continuous though, unlike the top tech stocks/ETFs.XBI.png.a2bb2a4ffd17302f4aca74b7ab267507.png

 

ADVM looks very worrying?!

ADVM.png.1ab48eb9a9607d621d652bc87c78a867.png

ADVM-financial.thumb.png.387a32fdfe91481a26e56b83e2ac5102.png

 

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Oz Jon

As I'm sure you have noticed, there has been a pretty sharp correction # in the US ( and other) markets in the last day or so. Small, hi-growth stocks (like AI candidates, and others) felt the pain of course.

Personally, I'm going to do nothing about it - just sit tight with my good-stock portfolio and ride out the dip.  I think that the US economy (and therefore the market) is fundamentally doing OK, so maybe I'll even do a bit of buying?

Very interesting looking at yesterday's prices on the 30-40  US stocks I own. Every one was in the red , except for 3 of the 4 "wild-card' cannabis stocks I have a small (play-money) interest in (the 4th one was down only 0.27%). They were up quite nicely!

So it looks like some other investors aren't worrying too much about market dips - maybe they are very laid-back and off somewhere else where there are no problems ? - Lol!

# about 7-8%, but the market has been about 5% up on the medium-term trend over the past week or so. I guess a bit of profit taking? Plus the exaggerated overshoot/volatility caused by automated/programmed trading?

Edited by Oz Jon
typos, additions

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throttleplate
4 hours ago, Oz Jon said:

As I'm sure you have noticed, there has been a pretty sharp correction # in the US ( and other) markets in the last day or so. Small, hi-growth stocks (like AI candidates, and others) felt the pain of course.

Personally, I'm going to do nothing about it - just sit tight with my good-stock portfolio and ride out the dip.  I think that the US economy (and therefore the market) is fundamentally doing OK, so maybe I'll even do a bit of buying?

Very interesting looking at yesterday's prices on the 30-40  US stocks I own. Every one was in the red , except for 3 of the 4 "wild-card' cannabis stocks I have a small (play-money) interest in (the 4th one was down only 0.27%). They were up quite nicely!

So it looks like some other investors aren't worrying too much about market dips - maybe they are very laid-back and off somewhere else where there are no problems ? - Lol!

# about 7-8%, but the market has been about 5% up on the medium-term trend over the past week or so. I guess a bit of profit taking? Plus the exaggerated overshoot/volatility caused by automated/programmed trading?

fear of rising interest rates where the 10 year is at 2.85 or abouts. I lost money in the market i would guess because i havnt looked and i wont look.I just keep waking up in the morning and let shit happen. I am not one to look at my stocks but maybe 3 times a year.

If i wouldnt have read about it on yahoo front page news i wouldnt have known about it.

Just now, throttleplate said:

fear of rising interest rates where the 10 year is at 2.85 or abouts. I lost money in the market i would guess because i havnt looked and i wont look.I just keep waking up in the morning and let shit happen. I am not one to look at my stocks but maybe 3 times a year.

If i wouldnt have read about it on yahoo front page news i wouldnt have known about it.

another thing is some higher cd rates are appearing since the 10 year is climbing so thats good.

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Cgu
2 hours ago, throttleplate said:

rising interest rates where the 10 year is at 2.85 or abouts.

Always good to keep an eye and the interest rate curves. It served me well as one of the indicators for bull/bear markets (and it is the strongest signal of all, when this one goes bear - get out of equities and go into yield arbitrage - no big gains but nearly 100% sure). This indicator still showing bull.

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rfm010
20 hours ago, rep1 said:

XBI looked okay? It took one and half year to recover. ...

yes but look at what it was recovering from:  a very fast strong rise and a very fast strong dip.  from the start of 2012 until the peak in mid-2015 the price had tripled.  at the bottom in early 2016 the price had adjusted to only a double in 3 years, so about 26% average per year.  and from that 2016 bottom, in the next 2 years, up to say, end of january, it was working on another double.

ADVM looks very worrying?!

you are presenting the chart from the initial public offering.  IPOs are strange animals, especially in biotech.  their prices are typically based on hope and enthusiasm.  you see lots of that after the offering.  you see it disappear mid-2015.  go back to the xbi chart and see what happened to biotech in general mid-2015.  no h&e.  that plus they had a stock dilution coupled with a couple of early drug failures (big overnight price drop).  they were also under a different name, don't remember what.  so by 2016 they were restructuring, and they are now essentially a different company with improved molecules under development. 

all developing biotech is "worrying", the tier 4 stuff doesn't even have product, but if all goes well, people who hold ADVM now will be paying other people to do their worrying for them.  if bad things happen, well, been there done that.

ADVM.png.1ab48eb9a9607d621d652bc87c78a867.png

 

 

past performance is no guarantee of future results

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