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Biotech / AI / robotics?

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rep1
On 12/9/2017 at 6:34 PM, rfm010 said:

in general biotech was hit hard in october because of politics, which has been a problem since mid 2015.  repeal of obamacare was a total mess and trump was bad-mouthing high drug prices.  these type of things make investors nervous about biotech.  another example of this was when hillary started bad-mouthing drug prices in mid 2016 when the epipen scandal broke.  but typically after the posturing things settle down and the obscene profits  life-saving research continues.  current political problem is tax reform.  i won't go into details now because wife just got home and seems to think there are better things for me to do.

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It appears every time XBI fell, IBB fell harder, and when XBI rose IBB moved little.

Why aren't they booming like a few years ago, now that there is no more problem?

minimum requirement to buy XBI is too much unless I put the little cash reserve I have...

On 12/9/2017 at 12:32 AM, rfm010 said:

You may also consider an artificial intelligence and robotics etf such as botz.  Baba and botz are my only non-biotech holdings.  All of these will do some serious bouncing around but they are major areas of new discovery with products of high demand so if your long term is more than 5 years you should do well.

BOTZ records are excellent, better than ROBO. But most of the top holdings are old manufacturers of automation machines from Japan and they show no sign of new plan or revenue increase, despite of skyrocketing stock since last year?! That part looks like a bubble... Where are the AI companies??

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Oz Jon
19 hours ago, rep1 said:

... Where are the AI companies??

Well there is NVDIA of course - they are streets ahead with the hardware and doing rather nicely.

Don't rule out some bigger, older established players Google, Facebook, Amazon, Tesla (and a few more) are either in the game or soon will be  - Many of them have been using AI for awhile to optimise their businesses and some have AI software/facilities for hire.

There are a few small/medium players and startups that could be big-time AI bets for the future - The trick is to figure out which ones!  Maybe buy a few - One big winner will cover your losses on the several losers.

Edited by Oz Jon
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rep1

NVDA not available! I already hold a bit of several others; now look for one of lower risk, hopefully some ETF but for robotics what options are available besides ROBO and BOTZ??

Funds are very disappointing - all the biotech funds are garbage compared to XBI. couldn't find AI related ones.

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Cgu
35 minutes ago, rep1 said:

NVDA not available! I

What you mean  is not available?

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rep1
55 minutes ago, Cgu said:

What you mean  is not available?

not available from local bank. I'm not using US brokerage because of high fees.

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Cgu

@rep1What bank are you using? It seems that you can get ROBO etc. , but not NVDA - both listed on the NASDAQ - so you should have the same fees.

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rep1
22 minutes ago, Cgu said:

@rep1What bank are you using? It seems that you can get ROBO etc. , but not NVDA - both listed on the NASDAQ - so you should have the same fees.

bank from my home country. Ah, I suppose I could just ask on the counter directly!

But I'm hoping to find some other ETF or fund instead of single company stock now, especially since NVIDIA isn't dominant in its sector like Google.

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Cgu
4 minutes ago, rep1 said:

since NVIDIA isn't dominant in its sector like Google.

Well I own NVDA (and 2 other stocks) for about a 1 year in my "growth-momentum" stock portf. and I did quite good  (ca. 100% gain) and  as of now no indicator shows to swap it out.

Anyway, I think NVDA is one of the leading AI company .

I do not select stocks like that, instead for each of  my portf (3 in total ) I follow a strategy and buy (or sell) regardless of type (ETF, stock etc.), sector, industry etc. Until now it served me well. Additionally.  with some little money I play around - just gambling (not speculating like with the portf). Of course I will always hold also my "fix income" in annuities and mostly bonds.

However, I follow individual stocks and the market as finance and economics is my passion and tray to improve the strategies (which I  nearly never had to.....)

 

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Oz Jon
11 hours ago, rep1 said:

not available from local bank. I'm not using US brokerage because of high fees.

Well, I find just the opposite!

ETrade charges me US$6.95 per trade and Schwab charges me US$4.95 per trade.

And I do FX conversions (AU$ - US$ or reverse) through OFX. Costs about 1% (banks charge 3-4%).

You mentioned ETFs.

Well QQQ (NASDAQ) is a good choice which matches the NASDAQ 100 Index. That picks up practically all the major (and mid-sized)  tech stocks. All those tech players are/will get involved in AI. Google and Facebook use AI extensively already.

QQQ usually yields about 15% pa. Last year, up around 20% pa, right now, 34% pa - not too shabby and very secure!

Edited by Oz Jon
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rfm010
2 hours ago, Oz Jon said:

...

ETrade charges me US$6.95 per trade and Schwab charges me US$4.95 per trade.

...

Oz Jon,  perhaps you could share with people how you were able to set up these accounts?  were you able to do it in australia?  i'm american and i had some trouble setting up my ameritrade account, had to use my brother's address to do so, and then he was getting calls and i was getting emails, as if they were checking up on me.

i'm all set up, and i don't know how hard/easy it is for others to set up these accounts.  it may be helpful to some people if you could explain how you set up yours, hopefully it is a straightforward process.

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Oz Jon
49 minutes ago, rfm010 said:

....Oz Jon,  perhaps you could share with people how you were able to set up these accounts?  were you able to do it in australia? .......

If you tried to set up a US brokerage account from a non-US address a few months ago - you would probably fail - lots of companies didn't want the hassle of dealing with IRS and anti-money-laundering bureaucracy and potential massive penalties for getting it wrong.

I guess something changed recently - because now they want your business.

I had no problem setting up a US$ IB brokerage account -(it works fine, but I don't like their website and will probably close it)

I had no problems setting-up a US$ US brokerage account with Schwab. They bought-out an Aus broker and set-up an Aus office. They handle all the paperwork in Aus, but you can trade on-line directly with the US site. Works well and the Aus customer service is excellent.

I've had an ETrade (trust) brokerage account for about 20 years (for my superannuation fund). It's still active. Pre Xmas, when I tried to open a new individual/joint account they declined (said it was a business policy decision). But post-Xmas, they invited me to open another account! Haven't actually finished doing that yet (some documentation went astray in the post ) but I believe it will get sorted in a week or so. Again, I expect to trade on-line directly with the US site.

I've already reported that I use OFX to send currency backwards and forwards efficiently, avoiding rip-off bank fees - again no problems, just a bit of ID proof and W-8BEN paperwork.

I have no idea if it's as easy to do this from the Phils - I'd be surprised if it is!

It's more fun ( but very little works like the rest of the world ) in the Philippines!

But the Phils has its compensations!

Cheers

ps. When contacting these companies on-line, if you don't get a satisfactory response, ask them to refer your request up the management chain. Frequently the first-line people don't have authority or are insufficiently informed.

Edited by Oz Jon
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Oz Jon

rfm010

I'm an Australian citizen, resident in Australia (everyone loves us! except the English cricket team and UK/NZ rugby teams- Lol!)

In setting-up these accounts I had to certify that I wasn't a US citizen/taxpayer, prove my ID and residential status ( and for tax reasons) claim exemptions under the Aus-US Tax Treaty with a W-8BEN.

For a non-resident US citizen, things are probably different - Uncle Sam wants a share of your success!

Edited by Oz Jon

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Cgu
1 hour ago, Oz Jon said:

I had no problem setting up a US$ IB brokerage account -(it works fine, but I don't like their website and will probably close it)

IB is the easiest - not problem even if you reside in the Philippines. W-8BEN forms can be filled up and signed all electronically (with Ameritrade it is a PITA).

I like the web site, but I trade with the their workstation (is secure and fast). Also for me it has the cheapest commissions. However, you need to trade - there is an inactivity fee of 10USD per month (I think) - but that is peanuts in comparison .

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rfm010
On 2/2/2018 at 10:48 PM, rep1 said:

It appears every time XBI fell, IBB fell harder, and when XBI rose IBB moved little.

Why aren't they booming like a few years ago, now that there is no more problem?

 

in the past many years xbi and ibb have moved pretty much together, a neck and neck horse race:

 5a76b58f400a3_xbiibb.png.ffa4615792d92a98c194df5e1f2811b1.png

in 2017 xbi outperformed ibb by a good bit,  something like 40% to 20%.  fidelity's fbiox, by the way, was up roughly 30%.   given that the nasdaq was up about 28% and the s&p about 21%, only xbi did particularly well. 

so for 2017 xbi done did better than ibb, but historically they track pretty close.  last year ibb probably (speculating here) had more problems because of its heavier weighting in bigger caps like celg, amgn, gild, biib, rgen, etc.   many of these companies have been having troubles as their big money making drugs are facing patent expirations and such.   xbi is not nearly as weighted in any individual stock, and the small/midcaps did well, and thus xbi outdoes ibb in 2017.

you ask why xbi and ibb aren't booming like before?  well, 40% is a nice pop even in an overall up market.  double your money about every 2 years with that.  $1000 becomes 1 million in 20 years, nothing to sneeze at if you aren't old and desperate. 

not sure what you mean by "... now that there is no more problem ...".  to what problem do you refer?  the primary general problem the last few years has been political posturing on drug prices.  this posturing has matched many of the biotech dips, including the second half of 2015 and the 4th quarter of 2017, and it has come from both sides.  trump's state of the union devoted an entire paragraph on drug prices.  and the past couple of days have not been good for biotech (or for most other sectors of course).   the political "problem" is far from over.  other problems tend be simply the nature of the beast, perhaps politics is part of that nature.

as far as your problems with buying certain stocks/etfs, i think you need a better trading platform, hopefully ozjon or somebody can give you guidance on that.

as far as botz, and aieq go, those are just toy holdings i play with.  i don't even worry about their holdings.  i know nothing about the field, if i did i would play with individual stocks.   out of both on market stops as of last tuesday as stocks began to fall.   if the tech sector and/or the overall market goes into a correction, i will buy back at a later better price.  if last week is all the correction there is to be seen, i will buy back as they pass back up through about +3% of my sell price.  lose a little profit that way, but avoid larger potential loss.  i expect to play in and out of these for a long time as i think the sector is generally going to go up in the LONG run.  my long run is probably shorter than yours because i am probably older than you.

you mention that you have some spare cash that you gamble with.  if by gamble you mean gamble, then divide your money into GERN and NVAX.   gern has a potential cancer drug that, if the (probably this february) internal review numbers are good, will cause the stock price to do very nice things.  price is up about 25% since my last buy in as people begin to, well, gamble on the upcoming data release.   NVAX has data coming in february from their early trial for a nanoflu vaccine.  if the numbers are good it will give more confidence for a later stage trial for the rsv virus vaccine which is the potential money maker.  an earlier trial for elderly patients failed in 2016 and the stock price fell about 90% so there is some serious upside with good results.  just saying, but the last time i made a suggestion on a stock (acrx), the fda rejected it and the price went down a bit.  about 60% overnight.  but ACRX will resubmit with additional safety data and it will be time for a new gamble.

Edited by rfm010
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Oz Jon

Well rfm - there was some good stuff in your last post - i liked it.

However I thought that you were a bit unfair comparing those 2 specialised EFTs with the S&P Index! The S&P500 is a pretty staid, bloated with banks and the like, conservative index.

The NASDAQ 100 is probably a better, more contemporary indicator of the US market. It would have yielded about 206% (up about 3x) in that same period.

Certainly those 2 specialised ETFs did a bit better, but at considerably higher risk.

Is that few % extra yield worth the extra risk? - that's the name of this game!

[APPLE, AMAZON, GOOGLE, FACEBOOK, etc aren't going to go broke, anytime soon!]

Cheers

Edited by Oz Jon
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