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Cebu & Philippines Weather Satellite Map, By Typhoon 2000

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Cebu & Philippines Weather Satellite Map - Credit: Kochi University, 2-5-1 Akebono-cho, Kochi 780-8520, Japan. Tel: +81.88.844.0111

 

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Amazing, isn't it? That one did a complete u-turn and headed away:

 

LUPIT_(RAMIL)_Philippines.gif

 

Here's another one that took a u-turn. This one is probably the last of the season:

 

activetrack.gif

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It's that time of the year again, folks.

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Amazing, isn't it? That one did a complete u-turn and headed away:

 

post-1-12564637463_thumb.gif

Here's another one that took a u-turn. This one is probably the last of the season:

 

post-1-126373108342_thumb.gif

Here's another one that took a u-turn. This one is probably the last of the season:

 

post-1-126373108342_thumb.gif

 

I hate to correct you, but that this one isn't a typhoon, its a tropical depression, Typhoon can not loop, when they turn, they are a already weakening and become more harmless.

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I hate to correct you, but that this one isn't a typhoon, its a tropical depression, Typhoon can not loop, when they turn, they are a already weakening and become more harmless.

 

How did you reach that conclusion?

 

Generally,a Tropical Cyclone will recurve around an anti-cyclone, increasing in intensity as it does, often reaching its maximum intensity whilst recurving into an North Easterly/ Easterly direction.

Edited by Ricky

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I hate to correct you, but that this one isn't a typhoon, its a tropical depression, Typhoon can not loop, when they turn, they are a already weakening and become more harmless.

 

How did you reach that conclusion?

 

Generally,a Tropical Cyclone will recurve around an anti-cyclone, increasing in intensity as it does, often reaching its maximum intensity whilst recurving into an North Easterly/ Easterly direction.

 

hi Ricky,

i guess you refer to the 'recurving" part,.

 

u are absolutely correct in technical terms, i just simplified it, so that non-mariners understand it...

of course we two could start a big forums on that one, but lets rather not bore the others :-)

 

but you would agree, that a typhoon can not recurve SOUTH in the northern hemisphaere, meaning U-turn, and that the tracks (in the vincinity of the Philippines, and thats all what concerns people here are usually safe once this TRS changing track very much north/easterly are safe.®

 

simply because we are only get hit as long as the track is going westerly. except when the TRS is already over the Phils, which GOD may prevent. So once it recurves to the north or northeast, we don't get hit. Out in the open water is a different story, but only people like us have to tackle with that one.

 

change of topic... did you have also the impression shared by many people here, that the tracks in general now go a bit more northish towards the Philipines ?

(Thanks to the global warming and the higher water temps the change direction earler after they let the storm kitchen, unfortunatly they also get more fierce)

 

Meaning for us Cebu people- we are safer from devastating TRS..similar to Mindanao?

 

I really would love your opinion too, right now the count is about 80% pro that theory, 20 % against ( about 150 mariners in that "survey")

 

cheers, Guenther

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I hate to correct you, but that this one isn't a typhoon, its a tropical depression, Typhoon can not loop, when they turn, they are a already weakening and become more harmless.

 

How did you reach that conclusion?

 

Generally,a Tropical Cyclone will recurve around an anti-cyclone, increasing in intensity as it does, often reaching its maximum intensity whilst recurving into an North Easterly/ Easterly direction.

 

hi Ricky,

i guess you refer to the 'recurving" part,.

 

u are absolutely correct in technical terms, i just simplified it, so that non-mariners understand it...

of course we two could start a big forums on that one, but lets rather not bore the others :-)

 

but you would agree, that a typhoon can not recurve SOUTH in the northern hemisphaere, meaning U-turn, and that the tracks (in the vincinity of the Philippines, and thats all what concerns people here are usually safe once this TRS changing track very much north/easterly are safe.®

 

simply because we are only get hit as long as the track is going westerly. except when the TRS is already over the Phils, which GOD may prevent. So once it recurves to the north or northeast, we don't get hit. Out in the open water is a different story, but only people like us have to tackle with that one.

 

change of topic... did you have also the impression shared by many people here, that the tracks in general now go a bit more northish towards the Philipines ?

(Thanks to the global warming and the higher water temps the change direction earler after they let the storm kitchen, unfortunatly they also get more fierce)

 

Meaning for us Cebu people- we are safer from devastating TRS..similar to Mindanao?

 

I really would love your opinion too, right now the count is about 80% pro that theory, 20 % against ( about 150 mariners in that "survey")

 

cheers, Guenther

 

To be honest, without really sitting down and taking a look at the facts I wouldn't really be able to give a hard answer to that. But taking a look at the historical track data for the last 20 years, there doesn't seem to be a great deal of difference in the areas affected. 2001 and 2002 were very quiet years.

Essentially though, Cebu is lesser affected by Typhoons then Manila because of how far south it is, and really very few Typhoons here tend to venture South of 10'degrees. The affect of the ITCZ north of the equator, the increased coriolis force the further North you get, and the positon of the Semi-Perminant Subtropical Anticyclone hovering to the North East of the Philippines in the South China Sea which the Typhoons are tracking around.

So yes the Typhoons tend to head North, is this a new trend? I don't think so. Have the increased sea temperatures made a difference, well there is no doubt that it would affect the intensity, but I think that would take a bit more time to work out whether that has had an affect on the overall trend of movement.

 

With the regards the earlier mention of the Typhoon recurving back on itself, I agree that it would tend to be a weaker Typhoon when that occurs, and yes in that situation is probably dissipating.

Edited by Ricky

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