Tullioz

A Wet End to the Week. Flooding for Some?

71 posts in this topic

Been clear here for most of two days and I hope it stays that way since we are having a terrace added to the house.

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Looks like the Boss is gonna get hammered

 

Yeah, the rains are really starting to hit as of 5 pm.

 

Of course, the ground is already so saturated you can lose a slipper just walking across the grass.

 

 

Good updated (late Friday afternoon) summary here :

 

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2017/01/06/western-pacific-tropical-update-6-january-2017/

 

"Regardless of development, Invest 96W is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across eastern Mindanao and central Visayas over the weekend with the threat of urban flash flooding, especially in areas prone to poor drainage. Rainfall rates of 100-150 mm per day is possible."

 

That's a ton of rain!

 

and the more technical analysis from the US Navy here:

 

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/abpwweb.txt

 

N.B. No typhoon expected.

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We are starting to get heavy rain in Cebu now, 930 pm.

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We are starting to get heavy rain in Cebu now, 930 pm.

Drizzling on and off here now, midnight.

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The latest satellite image is showing the area of consolidated thunderstorms north of what the models were showing earlier. This would mean that places like Cebu and Bohol will probably be seeing a lot more rain than what was earlier forecast by the models. Northern Mindanao still looks like there will be some very high rainfall totals as the models have shown all along.

 

post-15209-0-58459800-1483720940.jpg

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Here's a pre-dawn Himawari shot of the archipelago.

 

Electric lights in Manila to the north; rain clouds in the south...

 

(notice the gray in the bottom-right corner)

 

 

post-5791-0-79297000-1483739122_thumb.jpg

Edited by BossHog

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Damn Boss, just looking at windy tv and it looks like your gonna catch some crap sometime Sunday morning..looks like we follow Sunday afternoon or evening

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My normally lush green lawn, currently isn't

 

post-5791-0-30056000-1483751180_thumb.jpg

 

But this kind of weather does has a silver lining:

 

we get vagrant seabirds flying up the tidal river behind the house.

 

Have seen a few lesser frigatebirds (Fregata ariel) already this morning.

 

Nothing small about them though, these are one of the larger birds we see around here.

 

post-5791-0-25750600-1483751072_thumb.jpg

 

 

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Posted (edited)

The heaviest rains will definitely be falling north of what the models were showing earlier and since the heaviest rains usually fall north of a tropical system's center, it now it looks like Cebu may have some issues with flooding as well.

 

post-15209-0-62213700-1483811724_thumb.jpg

 

NDRRMC1 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NO.3 AS OF 11PM, SATURDAY, JANUARY 8

 

Tropical Depression Auring has continued to move in the general direction of Surigao Provinces.

At 10PM today, the center of tropical depression Auring was estimated based on all available data @185km east southeast of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur.

 

Forecast Positions: 

24 Hours: In the vicinity of Marihatag, Surigao del Sur.

48Hr: 115km west Northwest of Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental.

72Hr: 70km East Northeast of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan.

96Hr: 120km East of Pagasa island, Palawan.

120Hr: 120km Northeast of Pagasa Island, Palawan.

 

Signal #1:

Visayas -- Bohol,Siquijor, and Southern Leyte.

Mindanao-- Agusan del Sur, Agusan del Norte,Surigao del Sur,Surigao del Norte, including Siargao Island, Dinagat Province, Misamis Oriental,Misamis Occidental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Davao del Norte, Northern Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley

 

Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within 300km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

Residents of areas with Signal No.1 and over the rest of Davao Region and of Northern Mindanao are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

 

Expected to make landfall over Surigao Provinces between Sunday evening until Monday early morning.

 

Fisherfolks and those with small seacrafts are advised not to venture out over the eastern seaboard of Mindanao.

 

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

Latest radar showing where the heavy rain is falling now as of the time of this post.

 

post-15209-0-89862700-1483811952.jpg

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/#radar

 

Where the model shows the heavy rain during the day Sunday.

 

post-15209-0-66026600-1483812382.jpg

https://www.windytv.com/?rain,8.804,124.893,7

Edited by Tullioz

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Posted (edited)

Here in Nor Cal we are going to get 4-8" of rain, rivers will definitely overflow their banks... from drought to flooding, feast or famine water wise.

 

Stay safe and dry all...

Edited by TequilaSunset

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